2021 Global Economy: Bombing, Big Inflation, Big turbulent

Text: Yan Ansheng
The sudden new crown epidemic in the past 2020 has caused unprecedented impact on the global economy. Because China's epidemic prevention measures are resolute and decisive, and it takes only about three months to control the epidemic. Therefore, China is the fastest and most effective country in economic recovery, and the only large economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth.
Igen look at the performance of major global economies in the past year, except that China has achieved positive growth of 2.3 %, other countries can be described as unbearable. One is not as good as one. %, Germany-5.4 %, India-8 %, France-9 %, Britain-10 %. Based on the global economic situation, the global economy shrinks 3.5%in 2020.

This Leading the global economy rebound
is worthy of entering 2021, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is declining. As the new crown vaccine began to be listed around the world, It also brings the gospel to the global economy. Recently, people around the world are vaccinated with new crown vaccines, especially the two largest economies in the world, the United States and China, not only the strongest economic system resistance, but also the fastest and most vaccination speed and quantity. The United States may be the first to become a country that achieves group immunity. In this way, the two largest engines that drive global economic growth will quickly return to normal, giving the global economic input stealth growth momentum.
First of all, the performance of China's economy in 2021 will be one of the biggest highlights of the global economy. In the first quarter of 2020, China ’s economy experienced a negative growth of 6.8%, but in the second quarter of the second quarter of the Chinese economy, the momentum of decline in the Chinese economy was effectively curbed, and a positive growth of 3.2%appeared; in the third quarter, it rose further to 4.9%, while China's economic growth in the fourth quarter It was as high as 6.4%, exceeding the level before the outbreak of the epidemic. It can be expected that the good momentum of China's economic growth in 2021 will continue to be consolidated and promoted.
must see that the "two cycle" development pattern of China's economy in 2020 has achieved great success, laying a strong foundation for the new level of China's economy in 2021. In 2020, the Chinese economy was severely impacted by the new crown epidemic, and on the other hand, the anti -globalization forces led by the Trump administration of the United States, clamoring to decompose with the Chinese economy, and continuously upgraded the trade war and scientific and technological war against China. Faced with the rise of international protectionism, the downturn of the world economy, and the unfavorable external environment of the global market, the Party Central Committee has made a major strategic deployment of "two cycle development", that is, the domestic large cycle as the main body, and the domestic and international dual -cycle promotes each other. New development pattern. It turns out that the great success of the "dual -cycle development" strategy arrangement in 2020 has not only built the domestic market and industrial foundation, but also consolidated China's position in international trade, and even caused the US -launched trade war to China to completely declare failure. Essence In 2021, the Chinese economy will inherit the pace of 2020 to continue to maintain a strong development momentum in the "dual -cycle development" pattern.
It's emphasis is that the Chinese economy has entered a new stage of comprehensive and high -quality development. The new development concept of "innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing" is leading the comprehensive transformation and upgrading of the Chinese economy. New technologies and new industries are The new business formats are endless, for example, 5G, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, clean energy, high -end medical equipment, high -end chips and other modern information industries and high -end technology industries are becoming a new highlight of China's economic development. The development of the new format in China is in the ascendant, with huge potential, and the market prospects are unlimited. In 2021 and the next few years, it will be a period of emerging economy such as new technologies, new industries, and new formats in China, and injecting the surging driving force into China's economic development.
In view of this, at the national "two sessions" held in March this year, Premier Li Keqiang announced to the world that the target of economic growth determined by the Chinese government in 2021 was 6%or more. As Premier Li Keqiang emphasized, as China's GDP has exceeded RMB 100 trillion, the increase in the increase of 6%of GDP in 2021 is equivalent to the incremental level that can reach 8%of the "Thirteenth Five -Year Plan" period. Obviously, the economic growth of 6%and above the Chinese government in 2021 is a very positive and secure goal.
Secondly, the United States makes full use of the US dollar hegemony status to make the US economy quickly recover through the heavenly relief plan and fiscal stimulus plan. Although the United States was deeply plagued by the epidemic in 2020, the decline of the US economy was better than expected, and it only declined by 3.1 %, which was greatly better than other major economies other than China. Why can the US economy be better than expected? The fundamental reason is that the US dollar has helped the US economy, because the US dollar has the status of world currency hegemony. It is the world's most popular settlement currency and reserve currency. It is the only hard currency that eats the world. The United States has made full use of the US dollar hegemony to start a banknote printing machine. On the one hand, it will send 100 billion dollars in cash benefits to the United States. On the other hand, injecting trillions of relief and liquidity into US companies and markets in injection of American companies and markets , Thus re -vitality and vitality in the dilemma.
In 2020 in Trump, the United States has released a $ 4 trillion relief plan and market rescue plan. As soon as the Bayeng government came to power, the Trump administration was inherited the so -called relief and stimulus policy of the Trump administration. On March 11, Biden officially signed a new rescue aid bill with a scale of 1.9 trillion US dollars. Since March 2020, the U.S. government has issued as high as US $ 6 trillion to the United States and enterprises. In fact, when Biden signed a $ 1.9 trillion stimulus plan, a number of international institutions immediately raised the US economic growth expectations in 2021.
. However, the US dollar drama is still behind. The Bayeng government also decided to launch a US $ 3-4 trillion economic recovery plan. This US $ 2.25 trillion economic recovery plan focuses on solving the reconstruction of the United States and bridges. The reform of infrastructure construction such as network broadband broadcasters in rural areas. The investment plan bill has been signed to take effect at the end of March; and the remaining about $ 2 trillion is expected to be announced in April. Conservation measures, health care subsidies and other issues. According to the data released by the Federal Reserve, from 2020 to the present, the United States has announced and prepared for the national subsidy plan and economic stimulus plan, which will release the basic mobile currency scale to the market in one year up to $ 23 trillion. Some market analysts pointed out that even if all Americans do not work, they only rely on the U.S. government to start a banknote printing machine, and the positive growth of the US economy in 2021 is no suspense.
In look at 2021, the main international organizations are optimistic about the global economic prospects. In early January this year, IMF stated that under the drive of the Sino -US economy, it is expected that the global economy will increase by 5.5 % in 2021, which is raised from October last year. 0.3 percentage points. Among them, China's economic growth forecast is ahead of all Western economies. Specifically, China's economic growth rate was 8.1 % in 2021, France was 5.5 %, the United States was 5.1 %, the United Kingdom was 4.5 %, Germany was 3.5 %, Brazil was 3.1 %, India was expected to rise to 11.5 to 11.5 %. Three months later, the International Monetary Fund released the "World Economic Outlook Report" on April 6. It is expected that the global economy will increase by 6%in 2021, which is 0.5 percentage points from the forecast value in January. At the same time, IMF expects that China's economy will increase by 8.4%in 2021, which is 0.3 percentage points compared with the forecast value in January. China will become the largest economy of global economic growth. The International Monetary Fund also predicts that the United States and India will be the first The third largest and third largest global economic growth contributor, Japan and Germany will be in the top five. The International Monetary Fund stated that more and more signs show that the economic crisis is over.

The global inflation rolling
The global economy rebounded in 2021, and it will be accompanied by global inflation, and the culprit will be the US dollar. As mentioned above, from the Trump administration to the current Bayeng government, the relief plan and economic stimulus plan launched by the US government continued to continue. Where did the US government have no money?
The US government can only repeat the trick, and use the US dollar's hegemony in the international currency system to start a printed machine printing machine and release the number of days to the world. And can also harvest the development results of other countries and regions.
. So far, the US dollar hegemony has been tried and has been tested and has made disasters from all over the world. However, since there is no status of international currencies that can challenge the US dollar, the world can only look at it in the world. The dollar blatantly plunder the world's wealth. Some analysts pointed out that in the past year, banknotes printed by the United States are equivalent to the sum of the money printed by human beings.
Since the US dollar is a global hard currency, it is the most important international settlement currency, international reserve currency and international circulation currency. Therefore, the United States has made full effort to release the US dollar to the world without restraint, which will inevitably cause many serious consequences The most direct evil is global inflation.事实上，对于美国所推出的一轮又一轮救助与经济刺激计划，市场在欣慰美国经济将出现大反弹的同时，也表现出了深深的忧虑和担心，全球性的通货膨胀已经滚滚而Come. Former US Treasury Secretary and Professor of Harvard University believe that a large -scale stimulus policy may cause "inflation pressure that a generation has never seen." He predicts that the Fed may be forced to raise interest rates from 2022 to "cool down" and inhibit inflation for the economy, earlier than the previous expectations of 2023.
In order to deal with the US -printed banknote printing behavior, the world is also starting to start a banknote printing machine. It is reported that this year, cash discounts printed in the world will synthesize hundreds of trillion dollars. Such a huge number of cash printed by countries must flood to the market. Some of the funds used to rescue their nationals flow to the stock market, and the other part is flowing towards the consumer goods market. Real estate, company equity and industrial products, etc. It is reported that one of the infrastructure plans in the United States alone has as many as $ 2 trillion in funds flowing to the international raw material market, which means that the prices of building materials such as cement, steel, copper, aluminum will rise sharply. From 5-110, the prices of products such as cement, steel, copper, aluminum and other products should be at least 1-3 times.
The world has begun to enter a hundred and expensive era. The first is the stock market leading. However, the stock market has benefited from the rich class, but ordinary people can only look at the stock market to sigh, and the gap between the rich and the poor is expanded again. According to data, the total assets of the world's richest 500 people in 2020 increased by 1.8 trillion US dollars, an increase of 31%, the largest annual increase in the eight -year history of the index.

It the rise of commodities. From April 2020 to February 2021, the prices of copper, iron, and silver in the international market rose 67%, 94%, 82, respectively. %, The price of crude oil was approaching $ 70 per barrel, for the high level in the past two years, the crude oil index rose 170%, and the energy index rose 172%. Steel prices have risen more than six months, and iron ore and nickel have reached a new high for many years.
It, in terms of the Chinese market, since mid -2020, the prices of commodities in the mainland have continued to rise, and the increase has risen. In the past six months, the price of copper has risen nearly 40 %, and paper has risen by 50 %. Plastic plastics After 30%, aluminum prices also rose by nearly 40%, iron and glass rose more than 30%, while zinc alloy and stainless steel skyrocketed nearly 50%, and the IC increased by 100%. Because energy and commodities are the basic products of the economy, the rise in the prices of these products will inevitably cause a chain reaction and eventually transmit it to the entire consumer market.
Third, the price of consumer goods in daily life has risen, and the costs of clothing, food, housing, and travel will become more and more expensive. According to World Bank data, global food prices rose more than 20%in 2020, and international sorghum prices rose sharply by more than 80%. After entering 2021, the prices of most agricultural products still show a rise. The international food price index compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has risen for nine consecutive months, which has reached the highest level since 2014. The rise is obvious. The price of soybeans has risen more than 60%in the past year, the price of rice has risen by 70%in 11 months, and the price of black beans has risen by 40%.

In addition, at present, many countries in the world, especially the real estate market in the United States and the United Kingdom, are hot, and property prices have risen. According to a report from the U.S. real estate brokerage company, the median sales of US residential sales in September 2020 increased by 13%year -on -year to $ 31.9. By November, the median housing prices in the United States rose to US $ 334,000, the highest since July 2013, the highest In the annual increase, the average house only stayed in the market for 27 days, and the total sales increased by 23%. It is estimated that the US house prices in 2021 will rise by 5.7%on the basis of 2020. At the same time, in recent months, international transportation prices have continued to rise, which led to the shortage of container boxes, which has led to an increasing cost of imported goods in various countries. Global inflation has shocked some emerging market countries and regions. For example, in February this year, Brazil's inflation has jumped to 5.2%, about twice as many as 6 months ago.

The global financial market will be turbulent
The global economic rebound in 2021 In addition to giving birth to global inflation, another major phenomenon will be accompanied by the global financial market will inevitably be more even more turbulent.
It, as mentioned above, the amount of water release of the sky has formed a surging trend in the international financial market. For other countries other than the United States, if any country imitates the US printed banknote and put water in the United States. As a result, severe inflation and prices soaring, the country's currency will not be able to buy a piece of bread even if it is carried by Zimbabwe in 2009. However, the United States is different. Because the United States has the US dollar hegemony, the US dollar has a unique hard currency status in the international currency system. In this way, all the US dollar banknotes printed by the United States are used by themselves, but the consequences must be borne by the world.
The dollars have begun to impact the global economy. Some market participants have pointed out that at present, the US dollar is facing the biggest challenge and crisis of confidence in the Federal Reserve since its establishment in 1913. In order to avoid the major depreciation of the US dollar, countries and international organizations in the world are trying to set up the risks that the US dollar may bring, and even European countries, including some American allies, and more and more emerging market countries, are one day for the US dollar to future. Lost international hard currency status and prepare. It is under this big background that many of the currency solutions for the settlement of the US dollar and the currency solution as a reserve method have been introduced. For example, the development of digital currency, currency exchange, gold settlement, etc., the global wave of de -US dollarization has gradually formed, and 50%of the trade between China and Russia has been using rubles and renminbi settlement. , Instead of settlement in the US dollar, Russia and the European Union also used the euro with 46%, and 18%used rubles.
of course, because the formation of the US dollar hegemony is not a day, so in the short period of time, the US dollar hegemony position will continue to exist. In fact, the U.S. government knows that the US dollar is unpopular, and the United States has also seen that the worldwide wave of de -US dollar is formed. Therefore, the US government cannot sit at the U.S. dollar to lose its hegemonic position, and it will not even tolerate the rise of other currencies, so that it will make the rise of other currencies, so that it will make the rise of other currencies, so that it will make the rise of other currencies. The US dollar status is threatened. At present, on the one hand, the U.S. government must print banknotes without restraint to maintain the normal operation of the US government and rescue the American people, and even implement a large -scale fiscal stimulus plan, and on the other hand In order to allow the United States to permanently enjoy the benefits of coinage taxes brought about by the global hard currency.
It can predict that in the face of the flood of the US dollar, in order to stabilize the US dollar, first of all, the US government and the Federal Reserve will definitely imitate the practice from 2009 to 2014. In the context of the US economy without interest rate hikes, one On the other hand, the signal of the Fed's "shrinkage" was released.
It as we all know, since the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, the Federal Reserve reduced the benchmark interest rate to ultra -low interest rate interval through multiple rounds of interest rate cuts. Especially in 2008, the US financial tsunami broke out and the US economy was severely damaged, which forced the Federal Reserve to maintain a zero -interest rate policy of 0%-0.25%in the seven years from 2008 to 2015.
, in order to stabilize the confidence of the international financial market for the US dollar, from 2009 to 2014, the Fed has been constantly claiming that the United States is about to raise interest rates, but the international financial market only heard that the stairs have sounded. The Fed really started interest rate hikes in 2015. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has never stopped release signals that will start to reduce the balance sheet of the balance sheet. However, in fact, the United States did not withdraw from quantitative easing until 2014, and the balance sheet was officially launched until 2017. This is how the United States influences the international financial market by shouting early and shakes international investors' attitude towards other international currencies and investment instruments.
In more need to point out that in order to maintain the US dollar's hegemonic position and crack down on competitors, it does not rule out that the US government will adopt the next three indiscriminate practices to create conflicts or even local wars in some parts of the world through military means. In fact, the reason why the US dollar hegemony has always been maintained is that one of the very important reason is that the US military forces have global strike capabilities, because after World War II, the United States established more than 150 military bases around the world, spreading across the world, spreading across the world, spreading across the world, all over the world, all over the world, spreading across the world, all over the world. In all corners of the world, it has become the patron saint of the most interests in the United States.
, from the perspective of more than two decades, the US military forces in the world not only protect the interests of the United States, but also deliberately destroy the interests of others. Global military manufacturing areas have shocks and launch local wars, such as successfully blocking the euro's challenge to the US dollar through the Kosovo war.
In the context of large water release and flooding of the dollar, on the one hand, the international community and investors are worried that the US dollar may have depreciated, so they are afraid to avoid the US dollar. On the other hand, the US government in order to maintain the US dollar hegemony. The status will take various means and measures to achieve the goal. In this way, there may be severe fluctuations in the international financial market. In 2021, there may be the following situations: when everyone thinks that U.S. stocks will fall sharply or the US dollar will devalue greatly, under the operation of the US government and the Federal Reserve, U.S. stocks may come out It is expected that the opposite rising market is expected, and the US dollar index even sings high; when the market expects that gold is the best risk aversion tool to invest in the gold market, the Fed may shout to raise interest rates to make the gold market turbulent, and the price of gold will not rise. Falling; when the US dollar is overwhelming, the United States is really likely to use military means to create local conflicts and wars in the Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and even the East Asia, which has tried to make the US dollar a shelter of international capital.
In short, the international financial market in 2021 will be full of uncertainty and risks.
(The author is the editor of the Hong Kong Economic Herald)