Analysis of the market structure of the industry: The markets in various industries are different, that is, there are different market structures. Market structure is the degree of market competition or monopoly. According to the number of companies in the industry, the degree of entry restrictions and product differences, the industry can basically be divided into 4 market structures: complete competition, monopoly competition, oligopoly monopoly, and complete monopoly. The comprehensive competitive market refers to a market structure that is not hindered and disturbed by competition. It is characterized by: 1. There are many producers, and various production materials can be completely flowing. 2, the product is tangible or intangible, it is homogeneous and different. 3. No company can affect the price of the product. Enterprises are always price recipients rather than price makers. 4. The profit of the enterprise is basically determined by the market's demand for products. 5, producers can enter or exit the market freely. 6. Market information is unblocked in both buyers and sellers, and producers and consumers know much about market conditions. Extension information: The industry analysis existing value: 1. Industry is a group composed of many similar companies. If we only conduct an enterprise analysis, although we can know the operation and financial situation of a company, we cannot know the status of other similar enterprises, and we cannot know the position of the company in the same industry. 2, and this is very important in the modern economy full of high competition. In addition, the position of the life cycle of the industry restricts or determines the survival and development of the enterprise. 3. Before the birth of a car, how brilliant the carriage manufacturing industry in Europe and the United States had been. This shows that if a certain industry is in a recession period, it belongs to the enterprise in this industry. No matter how strong its assets and strong business management capabilities, they cannot get rid of its dark prospects. 4. Investors cannot invest in the "sunset" industry that is about to decline and eliminate when considering new investment. When choosing stocks, investors cannot be confused by the scene in front of them. Instead, it is necessary to analyze and determine whether the industry that the company belongs is in the start period, the growth period, or the stable period or the recession period. Essence 5. Industry characteristics are one of the important factors that directly determine the value of the company's investment. Industry analysis is the prerequisite for analysis of listed companies, and is a bridge connecting macroeconomic analysis and analysis of listed companies. Reference materials Source: Baidu Encyclopedia-Industry Analysis
I. Industry market structure analysis
The markets in various industries are different, that is, there are different market structures. Market structure is the degree of market competition or monopoly. According to the number of companies in the industry, the degree of entry restrictions and product differences, the industry can basically be divided into 4 market structures: complete competition, monopoly competition, oligopoly monopoly, and complete monopoly. (1) Complete competition
The complete competitive market refers to a market structure that is not hindered and interfered by competition. Its characteristics are: 1. There are many producers, and various means of production can be completely flowing. 2. The products are tangible or intangible, they are homogeneous and different. 3. No enterprise can affect the price of the product, and the company is always a recipient of the price rather than the price of the price. 4. The profitability of enterprises is basically determined by the market's demand for products. 5. Producers can enter or exit this market freely.
6. Market information is unblocked in both buyers and sellers, and producers and consumers know much about market conditions.
In above the above characteristics, full competition is a theoretical assumption. The fundamental factor formed by the market structure lies in the non -difference between corporate products, and all companies cannot control the market price of the product. In the real economy, the type of complete competition is rare, and the market types of primary products (such as agricultural products) are similar to complete competition.
(2) Monopoly competition
The monopoly competitive market refers to the market structure with both monopoly and competitive. In the monopoly competitive market, each company has certain monopoly in the market, but there are fierce competition between them. Its characteristics are:
1. There are many producers, and various means of production can flow.
2. There are differences between the products produced but different, that is, there are differences between the products. The difference in products refers to the differences or imagination between various products. This is the main difference between monopoly competition and complete competition.
3. Due to the existence of product differences, producers can establish the reputation of their own products, so as to control the price of their products.
It can be seen that there are a large number of enterprises in the monopoly competitive market, but no company can effectively affect the behavior of other companies. In the market structure, the reason for the monopoly is the product difference, which causes the competition to the same type, that is, the replacement of the product. In all industries of the national economy, the market types of finished products (such as textiles, clothing and other light industrial products) generally belong to monopoly competition.
(3) oligopoly monopoly oligoral monopoly market refers to a relatively small number of producers occupying a large market share in the production of a certain product, thereby controlling the market supply market structure.
The reasons for the formation of the market structure are: 1. The initial investment of such industries is large, which prevents a large number of small and medium -sized enterprises entering.
2. This type of product can only achieve good benefits when mass production, which will naturally eliminate a large number of small and medium -sized enterprises in the competition.
It oligoral monopoly markets, because the output of these minority producers is very large, they have certain monopoly capabilities for market prices and transactions. At the same time, because only a small number of producers produce the same product, each producer's price policy and business method and their changes will have an important impact on other producers. Therefore, in this market, there is usually a leading company, and other companies follow the changes in the pricing and business methods of the company to make some adjustments accordingly. Capital -intensive and technical dense products, such as steel, automobiles and other heavy industries, as well as a small number of mineral products such as oil, such as petroleum, are mostly this type. Because of the huge investment, complex technology or product reserves of these products, the distribution of new enterprises has restricted the invasion of this market.
(4) Complete monopoly
The complete monopoly market refers to the situation of exclusive enterprises to produce a certain characteristic product, that is, the entire industry's market is completely in a market controlled by a company structure. The characteristic product refers to those products that do not or lack similar substitutes. Complete monopoly can be divided into two types:
1. The government is completely monopolized. Usually in public utilities, such as state -owned railways, post and telecommunications departments.
2. Private monopoly. For example, according to the franchise franchise by the government, or the exclusive operation of patent production, and the exclusive private monopoly operations established due to strong capital and advanced technology.
The characteristics of a complete monopoly market structure are: 1. The market is controlled by exclusive enterprises, and other companies cannot or cannot enter the industry. 2. Products have no or lack of similar alternatives.
3. The monopolists can formulate ideal prices and output based on the supply and demand of the market, choose between high -priced and small sales and low prices, and to obtain the maximum profits. 4. The freedom of monopolists in the formulation of products and production quantity is limited, and they must be restricted by antitrust law and government control.
The no real monopoly market in the current real life, and each industry has more or less introduced competition. Public utilities (such as power plants, gas companies, tap water companies, and post -telecommunications communications, etc.) and certain capital, technology high -intensive or rare metal mineral mining are close to the market types close to completely monopoly.
=, the industry's competitive structure analysis
Marl Potter, a professor at Harvard Business School in the United States, believes that the fierce competition in the industry comes from the competitive structure of its memory. There are five basic competitive forces in an industry, namely potential entryrs, alternatives, suppliers, demanders, and existing competitors in the industry (see Figure 4 -1 ). From a static perspective, the situation of these five basic competition and its comprehensive intensity determines the intensity of competition in the industry, and determines the ultimate potential of companies in the industry to gain profits. From a dynamic perspective, the results of these five competitive power compete together to determine the development direction of the industry and jointly determine the intensity and profitability of the industry's competition. However, the role of various forces is different. It is often the strongest one force or some power is in a dominant position and a decisive role. For example, when an enterprise is in a very favorable market position in a certain industry, the potential addresses may not pose a threat to it. However, if it encounters a high -quality and low -cost alternative competition, it may lose its favorable market position and only get low returns. Sometimes, even if there is no alternative and a large number of jokes, the fierce anti -street between existing competitors will limit the potential income of the company. 5 The advantages of each force in the force are a function of the industry structure or the economic characteristics and technical characteristics of the industry. The industry structure is relatively stable, but the process of the development of the accompanying industry has changed. Structural changes have changed the relative intensity of the overall competitive power, so that they can affect the industry's profitability in a positive or negative way.
. Economic cycle and industry analysis
Is when changes in various industries, they often present obvious, measured growth or recession patterns. These changes are related to the cycle of the national economy, but the relationship is closely different. Based on this, the industry can be divided into 3 categories.
(1) The growth industry
The movement status of the growth industry is not closely related to the cycle of economic activities and its amplitude. The rate of income growth of these industries does not always change synchronized with the changes in the economic cycle, because they mainly rely on technological progress, new products, and better services, so that they often show the growth form. In the past few decades, the computer and copy machine industry has shown this form. Investors are very interested in high -growth industries, mainly because these industries provide a means of wealth preservation for economic cyclical fluctuations. When the economy is rising, the development speed of high growth industries is usually higher than the average level; during the period of economic recession, it can still maintain a certain increase. However, the form of this industry's growth makes it difficult for investors to grasp the time of accurate purchase, because the stock prices of these industries will not significantly change with the changes in the economic cycle.
[2) The cycle industry
The movement status of the cycle industry is closely related to the economic cycle. When the economy is on the rise, these industries will follow it; when the economy declines, these industries will decline accordingly, and the changes in the income of this type of industry will often exaggerate the periodic of the economy to a certain extent. The reason for this phenomenon is that when the economy rises, the purchase of these industries related products increases accordingly; when the economy declines, the purchase of these industries related products is delayed to the economic improvement. For example, the consumer goods industry, durable products manufacturing and other industries with high elastic income income are typical cyclical industries. (3) The defensive industry
The operating conditions in the defensive industry are stable at the rise and decline of the economic cycle. The existence of this form of sports is because the product demand in this type of industry is relatively stable, the demand is small, and the economic cycle is also relatively small on this industry. Even some defensive industries will have a certain actual growth during the period of economic recession.
The products in this type of industry are often necessities or necessary public services for life. The public has a relatively stable demand for its products. Therefore, the level of representative companies in the industry is relatively stable. For example, the food industry and public utilities are in the defensive industry. It is precisely for this reason that investing in the defensive industry generally belongs to income investment, instead of capital -profit investment. . Analysis of the life cycle of the industry
. In general, each industry must go through a development and evolution process from growth to decline. This process is called the life cycle of the industry. Generally, the life cycle of the industry can be divided into childish period, growth period, maturity period, and recession.
The buds and formation of an industry. The most basic and important conditions are people's material and cultural needs. The material culture of society is the most basic motivation for industry economic activities. The support of capital support and the stability of resources is the basic guarantee for the formation of the industry. There are three ways to form in the industry: differentiation, derivation and new growth. Differential means that the new industry is separated from the original industry (mother) and decomposed into an independent new industry, such as the differentiation of the electronics industry from the mechanical industry, and the petrochemical industry from the petroleum industry. Derivatives refer to industries related to the original industry and supporting facilities, such as the automobile repair industry derived from the automotive industry, and the real estate consulting industry derived from the real estate industry. A new way of growth means that the new industry is carried out in a relatively independent way and does not attach to the original industry. The production of this industry is often the result of breakthrough progress in science and technology. It often sprouts in laboratory or science and technology parks, , such as biomedicine, biological engineering, and marine industry. At this stage, because the new industry has just been born or initially built, only a few investment companies have invested in this emerging industry. In addition, the research and development costs of startup companies are high, and the public lacks a comprehensive understanding of its products, resulting in a small demand for the product market and low sales revenue. Therefore, these startups may not only have no profit in finance. Large losses. At the same time, the contradiction between the higher product cost and price and the smaller market demand makes startups face great market risks, and it may also cause bankruptcy risk due to financial difficulties. Therefore, such enterprises are more suitable for speculators and entrepreneurial investors.
In late stage of childhood, with the maturity of the industry's production technology, the decrease in production costs, and the expansion of market demand, the new industry gradually gradually increases from high -risk, low -yield childish periods. The growth period of benefits.
(2) Growth period
The growth of the industry is actually the expansion of the industry. The ability to grow in various industries is different. The growth capacity is mainly reflected in the expansion of production capacity and scale, the horizontal penetration capacity of the region, and the reform capacity of its own organizational structure.
The ability to judge the growth of an industry can be examined from the following aspects: (L) demand elasticity. Generally speaking, the industry with high demand elasticity is also strong. (2) Production technology. Industry with fast technological progress, strong innovation capabilities, rising productivity, easy to maintain an advantageous position, and strong growth ability. (3) Industrial correlation. Industries with strong industrial associations have strong growth capabilities. (4) The market capacity and potential port market capacity and market potential industries, their growth space is also large. (5) The industry's transfer activity in space. The industry's spatial transfer activity stops, which can generally indicate that the industry's growth has reached the boundary of the market demand, and the growth period also enters the end. (6) Changes in industrial organization. In the process of industry growth, it is generally accompanied by the continuous development of enterprise organizations in the industry in the direction of groupization and large -scale.
In the early stages of growth, the production technology of the enterprise gradually took shape. The market recognized and accepted the industry's products, and the sales of products increased rapidly. The market is gradually expanding. However, enterprises may still be in a state of losses or micro -profit. External funds are injected to increase equipment and personnel, and the development of the next generation of products. After entering the accelerated growth period, the company's products and labor services have been accepted by consumers. Sales income and profits have begun to accelerate growth. New opportunities continue to emerge, but enterprises still need a lot of funds to achieve high -speed growth. During this period, enterprises with strong research and development strength, marketing capabilities, strong capital strength, and smooth financing channels gradually occupied the market. The industry's growth during this period was very rapid. Some of the advantageous companies stood out. Investors investing in these companies often received high investment returns. So the growth stage is sometimes called investment opportunities.
The new industry has also flourished with the rise of market demand. A large increase in manufacturers investing in new industries, and products have gradually developed from a single, low -quality, high -priced to diverse, high -quality and low -cost direction. The situation of competition between manufacturers and products between products and products. This situation will last for several years or decades. During the period, market competition continued to intensify, the product output continued to increase, and the number of manufacturers continued to increase. In the late growth period, manufacturers not only rely on expanding production and increasing market share to obtain competitive advantages, but also need to continuously improve the level of production technology, reduce costs, develop and develop new products, thereby defeating or keeping up with competitors. Maintain the survival of the enterprise.
The profit of enterprises during this period has grown rapidly, but the risk of competition is also very high, and the bankruptcy rate and merger rate are quite high. Due to the role of the survival of the fittest in market competition, the number of manufacturers in the market will be greatly reduced after one stage, and then it will gradually stabilize. As market demand tends to be saturated, the sales growth rate of products has slowed down, and the opportunity for profit to quickly earn profits is reduced, and the entire industry has begun to enter the mature period.
(3) maturity period
The industry maturity is first manifested as technical maturity, that is, companies in the industry generally adopt applicable and at least some advanced, stable, stability Technology. The second manifestation is the maturity of the product. The maturity of the product is a sign of the industry's maturity. The basic performance, style, function, specifications, and structure of the product will be mature, and it has been used by consumers. Once again, the production process matures. Finally, the maturity of industrial organizations. In other words, there is a good division of labor collaboration between enterprises in the industry. The market competition is effective, the market operation rules are reasonable, and the market structure is stable.
The maturity period of the industry is a relatively long period. Specifically, the length of the maturity period of various industries is often different. Generally speaking, the maturity period with high technical content is relatively short, while the maturity period of the public cause industry lasts longer. The main characteristics of the industry are in the maturity period: (1) the company's size is unprecedented, its status is prominent, and the product popularization is high. (2) The industry's production capacity is close to saturation, market demand is also saturated, and the buyer's market appears. (3) The pillar industrial status is constituted, and its production element share, output value, and profit and tax share occupy a place in the national economy. But it is usually difficult to identify when an industry really enters the maturity period. The industry market that enters the mature period has been controlled by a small number of large capital and advanced technology. Each manufacturer has its own market share, and the production layout and share of the entire market are in a stable state for a long period of time. The competition between manufacturers has gradually shifted from price to various non -price means, such as improving quality, improving performance, and strengthening after -sales service. The industry's profit has reached a higher level because of a certain degree of monopoly, but risks are low due to the stable market structure and the difficulty of entering new enterprises. During the industry's maturity period, the industry's growth rate dropped to a moderate level. In some cases, the growth of the entire industry may stop completely, and its output may even decline. The development of the industry is difficult to maintain synchronized growth with GDP. Of course, due to various reasons such as technological innovation, industrial policies, and economic globalization, some industries may usher in new growth after entering the maturity period.
(4) During the recession
The industry decline is objective inevitable, and it is the manifestation of the industry's economic metabolism. Industry decline can be divided into natural recession and accidental recession. Natural decline is a recession in a natural state. Occasionally decline refers to the recession in advance or postponed under the influence of accidental external factors. Industry decline can also be divided into absolute decline and relative recession. Absolute recession refers to the shrinking, functional recession, and aging product of the industry's internal recession. Relatively recession refers to the status of industry status and functions due to structural or invisible reasons for the industry, and it is not necessarily an absolute atrophy of the industry entity.
The decay period appears after the long stability period. Due to the emergence of a large number of alternatives, the market demand of the original industry's products has gradually decreased, and the sales of products have begun to decline. Some manufacturers have begun to transfer funds to other more favorable industries. Therefore The level of stagnation or decline is a stagnation scene. At this point, the entire industry has entered a period of recession.
. In many cases, the recession of the industry is often longer than the sum of the other three stages of the industry life cycle. coexist. For example, the steel industry is declining, but people cannot see their demise. This is especially true of the tobacco industry, and it is difficult to have a final period. In summary, different characteristics will be shown in different stages of a life cycle of an industry (see Figure 4 -2).
The analysts should carefully study the industry's life cycle stage of the company, track and examine the development trend of the industry, and analyze the investment value and investment risks of the industry. For investors with different preferences, analysts should have different investment suggestions. For example, for investors with income -type, it is recommended to give priority to choosing industries in mature period, because these industries have a stable foundation, rich profit, and relatively small market risks.
The example shows that the life cycle phase of some typical industries is shown in Figure 4-3. If Figure 4-2 The "price-sales-one-profit risk" situation of the life cycle of the industry life. Solar energy, certain genetic engineering products and other industries are in the naive period of the industry life cycle. If you are planning to invest in these industries, there may be only a few companies that are available to choose from, and at the same time, the risk of investing in the industry is greater. Of course, there is also the possibility of getting high returns. Investors can decide whether to invest in the industry through the balance of risks and returns.
2. Electronic information (electronic computers and software, communication), biomedical and other industries are in the growth period of the industry life cycle. Among them, the biomedical industry is in the early stage of growth, the wireless communication industry is in the middle of the growth stage, and the large -scale computer industry is in the late stage of growth. As a result, the industry of biomedicine can be initially judged that the biomedical industry will grow quickly at a rapid speed, but the competitive risks faced by enterprises will continue to grow; and the growth rate of large -scale computer industries will be lower than the biomedical industry and wireless communications industry in terms of growth rate. The risk of competition is relatively small.
3. Petroleum smelting, supermarkets and power industries have entered a mature stage. These industries will continue to grow, but the speed is slower than the industry in the previous stage. The mature industry is usually profitable, and the level of profit is relatively stable, and the risk of investment is relatively small.
4. Coal mining, bicycles, clocks and other industries have entered a period of recession. Investment in these industries should be cautious. If it is a long -term investment, this investment may have a large unsafe. Of course, with the changes in technological progress and economic globalization, some industries in the recession period will rejuvenate their vitality. The conclusion of the "no sunset industry, only sunset companies" pursued by the securities investment analysis community is also here.
The explanation is that the above -mentioned analysis of the four stages of the industry life cycle is only a description of the commonality of the industry. It does not apply to the situation of all industries. Moreover, in different countries at different levels of development or different development periods in the same country, it may be at different stages of the life cycle.
Therefore, when analysts specifically judge the actual life cycle stage of a certain industry, they often conduct comprehensive inspections from the following aspects:
1. Industry scale. With the rise and fall of the industry, the market capacity of the industry has a "small -big -small" process, and the industry's total asset size has also experienced the "small -big -shrinking" process.
2. Output growth rate. The growth rate of output is higher in the growth period and decreased after the maturity period. The experience data is generally 15QO. In the recession stage, the industry is in a low -speed running state, sometimes even in a negative growth state.
3. Property level. The level of profit margin is a comprehensive reflection of the degree of rising and decline in the industry. Generally, there is a process of "low -high - stability -low -severe loss".
4. Technical progress and technical maturity. With the rise and fall of the industry, the industry's innovation capabilities have a strong growth process to gradually decaying, and the degree of technology maturity has a "low -high -aging" process.
5. Operating rate. The long -term construction reflects the prosperity of the industry during the growth or maturity. The recession is often accompanied by insufficient construction.
6. The level of professionalization and wage welfare income of employees. With the rise and fall of the accompanying industry, the professionalization and wage welfare income level of employees has a "low -high -low" process.
7. Capital progress. Each stage in the industry life cycle will occur in and retreat from enterprises. Before the maturity period, the number of enterprises and capitals entered is greater than the amount of exit: and when entering the mature period, there is a balanced process and the amount of capital and exit of the enterprise entry; The scale of the industry has gradually shrinking, and production and failure often occur.
Industry characteristics refer to a particularly significant signs and signs that are different from other industries. The markets in reality are different, that is, there are different market structures. Market structure is the degree of market competition or monopoly. According to the number of companies in the industry, the degree of entry restrictions and product differences, the industry can basically be divided into 4 market structures: complete competition, monopoly competition, oligopoly monopoly, and complete monopoly.
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